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Is the Economy Stupid?

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Click Photo to Enlarge Alumni did some serious eating before the presentation began.

Click Photo to Enlarge Wayne Choisnet (left) spoke with some guests as they came in.

Click Photo to Enlarge The start of the current economic crisis can be traced back to housing--too much housing.

Click Photo to Enlarge It wasn't all gloom and doom. Choisnet provoked plenty of smiles and laughter during his talk.

No, just slow...for the moment. This ORU alum says things will get better.

You can learn a lot at an Alumni Connection luncheon. Take the May 19 meal where Arvest VP Wayne Choisnet, a '77 grad, came to talk about the economy.

Not so fast, Wayne. We want a little back story.

In Choisnet's case, the back story is pretty interesting.

As an ORU student, Choisnet was a yell leader. Years later, son Kyle followed in Dad's footsteps and went him one better: he spent 2 years as Eli the Golden Eagle mascot and will forever be remembered for the "mascot faceoff" at a Summit League tournament game.

More about Wayne: he became truly and sounded converted during one of Kathryn Kuhlman's visits to campus. And he met his wife, Kim (Lucas-77) at ORU; they've been married almost 30 years.

Okay, back to the economy...

"How did we get into this mess?" Choisnet began...and then proceeded to explain that "it started with housing--too much inventory." Other culprits: cheap money, low interest rates, consumer overspending, borrowing against a home's equity.

Fast-forward to the middle of his presentation (not because it wasn't good stuff, but just because we're running out of room here). The crisis has caused some seismic shifts. It has caused lenders to raise credit standards. People are paying down debt, spending less, and saving more.

Unemployment, Choisnet said, will probably top out at 10 percent. And "we're probably 6 months away from seeing the economy turn around, not rebound," he believes.

This is the nation's fourteenth recession since 1929, and according to Choisnet, they typically endure for about 16 months.

On the bright side, "The economy's beginning to look less worse," he said, drawing some laughter. "The Fed is trying to improve the economy. That means you should own stocks. The Fed is spending all their resources trying to make stock prices go up. Don't fight the Fed."

You might expect a banker to be in panic mode at a time like this, but this is an ORU grad--a business grad--we're talking about. He said it will take time, but the economy will indeed turn around.

It's 2009, folks, not 1929.